Thứ Tư, 6 tháng 5, 2009

Case Against the Fed and Fractional Reserve Lending

Fractional Reserve Lending (FRL) is fraudulent. Indeed, FRL in conjunction with micro-mismanagement of interest rates by the Fed is the root cause of the financial crisis we are in.

Unfortunately many do not see FRL for the fraudulent scheme that it is. Here are the most common defenses against the allegation of fraud.

Five Arguments Used To Defend FRL

1. FRL is not fraud because the lending is backed by assets.
2. FRL is not fraud because it is allowed by law.
3. Eliminating FRL would require unwarranted "regulation".
4. No one is harmed by FRL.
5. People have a legal right to make agreements with banks allowing their money to be lent with no reserves

Rebuttal

1R. To those who claim credit extended by fractional reserve lending is not fraudulent because it's backed by assets, I ask: "What assets?" The answer of course is ....

  • Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt that would be worthless were it not for taxpayer bailouts.
  • Asset backed commercial paper that has ceased to trade.
  • Toggle bonds and other such nonsense where debt is paid back with more debt.
  • Loans to hedge funds for speculation in credit default swaps and commodities.
  • Commercial real estate boondoggles including scores of condo towers now sitting empty.
  • A whole array of other silly loans that should never have been made.

Close analysis shows the "backed by assets" claim only holds true as long as asset prices are rising. When asset prices are falling as they are now, the true state of the non-existent backing is plain to see.

Credit extended via FRL is backed by nothing more than thin air and promises. Those promises are currently worth pennies on the dollar, and the entire global banking system is insolvent as a result.

2R. Some claim that fractional reserve lending cannot be fraud because it is legal. However, Just because something is legal does not make it right. For example: Slavery was once legal. It certainly never was right. Government decree cannot make slavery right, but it can and did make it legal. By the same token, government decree alone cannot change the fact that fractional reserve lending is fraudulent. Proof of fraudulence will be offered in the rebuttal to point number 4.

3R. Some claim that FRL cannot be eliminated because that would require regulation and such regulation would in and of itself be against free market principles. The fact of the matter is that a free market would quickly shut down any bank lending out more money than it had in the vault. No one would possibly trust such a bank. It is only government decree (regulation) that allows banks to get away with such obvious fraud.

Furthermore, people are confused by what "libertarian" means. Libertarian does not mean anarchy. There are laws against murder, theft, fraud, and slavery that no libertarian I know would argue against.

Indeed, for any society to function, there must be certain laws (regulations) in place. Here are the basic tenants of valid laws.

  • Protection of property rights
  • Protection of civil rights
  • Freedom of religion
  • Equal protection under the law regardless of race, creed, color, sex, nationality, wealth, etc.

4R. Proponents of FRL claim no one is harmed by it. In practice, everyone is harmed by it. Here is how it starts. Those with first access to money accumulate assets and those with later access to money bid up those assets. Consider housing. GSE creation of credit out of thin air is a perfect example of what happens. By the time credit was available to those of lower economic status, the bubble was already formed and ripe for a collapse. Even the non-participants were harmed. How so? Via rising property taxes and rising prices of goods and services without the benefit of rising wages.

Ironically, even those with first access to money (the banks and wealthy) ultimately did not fare well because they were greedy. When the bubble popped (as all debt bubbles eventually do) the only winners were the few who made timely bets on the demise of the bubble.

FRL is the enabler for credit bubbles. Given enough time, credit bubbles are guaranteed to implode in deflationary fashion. History is replete with examples. The South Seas bubble, the John Law Mississippi bubble, and tulip mania are prime examples.

5R. People have no such right to agree to commit fraud. Here are more things people have no right to do: Shout fire in a movie theatre, conspire to steal someone's money, agree to start a toxic waste dump in a location where it would poison every water source in the neighborhood. There is an infinite number of things two people cannot agree to do. The right of people to do things ends when it affects the property rights of everyone else. And as noted in 4R, everyone is affected by fraudulent agreements that allow more credit to be extended than there is money in the bank.

Sweeps

Greenspan authorized sweeps in 1994.

Sweeps allow Demand Deposits Accounts (checking accounts) to be systematically "swept" from checking accounts into savings accounts unbeknown to the checking account holder.

Savings accounts have zero reserves.

So... In actual practice there is almost no money backing up checking accounts, none (beyond what banks THINK they need historically). You can thank Greenspan for this.

This is not "Laissez Faire" economics or libertarianism. This is blatant fraud, something that those blaming libertarianism need to understand.

Such a construct would never flourish in a free market. It takes a regulator like Greenspan to allow it.

Search for Scapegoats

Instead of placing the blame on fractional reserve lending and the biggest regulator of all (the Fed), many claim there is not enough regulation and the Fed needs still more powers.

Please consider Anti-Libertarian Nonsense From Henry Kaufman & Company for a discussion of the so-called libertarian Fed, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Rating Agency Madness, and the Glass-Steagall Scapegoat.

Fed Uncertainty Principle

Inquiring minds should also consider the Fed Uncertainty Principle.
Uncertainty Principle Corollary Number Two: The government/quasi-government body most responsible for creating this mess (the Fed), will attempt a big power grab, purportedly to fix whatever problems it creates. The bigger the mess it creates, the more power it will attempt to grab. Over time this leads to dangerously concentrated power into the hands of those who have already proven they do not know what they are doing.
Why We Can’t Reinflate The Bubble

Ron Paul explains Why We Can’t Reinflate The Bubble.
Opening Statement:



Transcript:

We have to come to the realization that there is a sea change in what’s happening. This is an end of an era and that we can’t re-inflate the bubble, just as we devised a new system of Bretton Woods in ‘44 which was doomed to fail. It failed in ‘71 and then we came up with the dollar reserve standard which was a paper standard; it was doomed to fail and we have to recognize that it has failed. And if we think we can re-inflate the bubble by artificially creating credit out of thin air and calling it capital; believe me, we don’t have a prayer of solving these problems. We have a total misunderstanding of what credit is vs. capital. Capital can’t come from the thin air creation by the Federal Reserve System; capital has to come from savings. We have to work hard, produce, live within our means and what is left over is called capital. This whole idea that we can re-capitalize markets by merely turning on the printing presses and increasing credit is a total fallacy; so the sooner we wake up to realize that a new system has to be devised, the better.

Right now I think the Central Bankers of the world realize exactly what I’m talking about and they’re planning, but they’re planning another system that goes one step further to internationalize regulations, internationalize the printing press. Give up on the dollar standard, but we have to be very much aware that that system will be no more viable. We have to have a system which encourages people to work and to save. What do we do now? We’re telling consumers to spend and continue the old process; it won’t work.
All We Are Sayin’ Is Give Free Markets a Chance

Paul Kasriel, Director of Economic Research at the Northern Trust weighs in with All We Are Sayin’ Is Give Free Markets a Chance.
Given the economic and financial market “challenges” of the past year, some pundits and politicians are concluding that these challenges are the result of the failure of free markets. I would respond that we cannot determine whether free markets have failed unless we have had free markets. I do not think we have.

One of the most important markets in an economy is the market for credit. We do not have free markets in credit in the U.S. or anywhere else that I know of. The price of short-term credit is fixed by central banks. It would only be by accident that a central bank would fix the price of short-term credit at a level that would obtain if a free market in credit were allowed. It is beyond me why most economists would view with horror some government agency fixing the price of say, copper, but view the fixing of the price of short-term credit by central banks as nothing to be alarmed at.

There is at least one group of economists that realizes the economic mischief caused by central banks – economists who belong to the Austrian school. (For information about Austrian economics, click on this link to the Ludwig von Mises Institute or this link to Leithner and Company, a private investment firm located not in Austria, but in Australia.

I am not endorsing the political views or the investment advice of either of these entities, but I am endorsing their approach to economic analysis.) By holding a key short-term interest rate below or above the unobservable free market equilibrium level of this rate, the central bank creates credit, much as does a counterfeiter, or destroys credit, which leads to distortions in the economy and financial markets.

Typically, the central bank starts out by preventing the short term interest rate from rising to its equilibrium level. This leads to central bank credit creation. In turn, this encourages investments which are profitable only so long as the central bank prevents the interest rate structure from rising to its free-market equilibrium level. All of this manifests itself in the form of higher prices – higher prices of goods/services and/or the higher prices of assets. At some point, the central bank can no longer tolerate what it has wrought, and raises the level of the short-term interest rate above its free-market equilibrium. This precipitates a decline in asset prices, an economic recession and, later, a decline in goods/services prices (or
a slowing in their rate of increase). It was recognized by Austrian economists during the sharp run-up in U.S. stock prices in the late 1990s and the subsequent housing boom that the Greenspan-led Fed was especially egregious in keeping the federal funds rate far below its equilibrium level too long. We are now experiencing the economic and financial market fallout from Greenspan’s interference with the free market.

In free markets, risk-takers get rewarded if they are correct in the risks they take, but are punished if they are incorrect. Here, too, Greenspan intervened in the free markets. When it turned out some risk-takers had erred, Greenspan cushioned their losses by slashing the federal funds rate and creating central bank (counterfeit) credit. This central bank intervention in free markets encouraged risk-takers to take on even more risk inasmuch as their upside rewards would seem to be unlimited but their downside punishment would be limited.
Protection of Property Rights Is The Key Issue

The central point in a free market based banking system is to avoid violations of property rights. However, the current system of 100% fractionally reserved banks allows money to be created out of thin air robbing savers, by making those savings worthless over time. A pernicious effect of this system of permanent inflation is that it creates malinvestment and large boom-bust cycles that destroy wealth.

The Fed is a failed institution. Fannie Mae is a failed institution. Freddie Mac is a failed institution and fractional reserve lending is a fraud.

The correct policy decision is to abolish all of them, not to add layer after layer after layer of regulators watching over other regulators, who in turn watch over still other regulators, where some "god-like" super-regulator at the top supposedly has infinite wisdom and knows exactly how to regulate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Bernanke Warns of Credit Relapse; Senator Sanders Warns Bernanke

While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Warns of a Credit Market 'Relapse', Congress is increasingly willing to stand up to the Fed Chairman.

Please consider Bernanke Warns of Danger of Credit Market 'Relapse'.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that another shock to the financial system would undercut the central bank’s forecast that the U.S. recession will give way this year to a slow recovery.

“A relapse in financial conditions would be a significant drag on economic activity and could cause the incipient recovery to stall,” Bernanke said today in testimony to the congressional Joint Economic Committee. He highlighted that the economic contraction may be slowing and that the housing market has “shown some signs of bottoming” after a three-year slump.

The Fed’s effort at greater transparency in its emergency lending programs is a response to an April 2 nonbinding budget amendment sponsored by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd, a Connecticut Democrat, and the panel’s ranking Republican, Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, Bernanke said. That proposal passed 96-2.

The Fed chief did not mention a tougher measure, also nonbinding, sponsored by Vermont Senator Bernard Sanders, an independent, that called on the Fed to identify borrowers. The measure passed 59-39 on the same day.

Sanders, in a statement after the hearing, threatened to pass the measure again “in a stronger form” if Bernanke failed to accept it. Bernanke told Sanders in February that identifying borrowers would be “counterproductive” and result in “severe adverse consequences for the economy.”

“Mr. Bernanke should not pick and choose which amendments he wants to respond to,” Sanders said. “My bipartisan amendment passed the Senate by 20 votes, and we expect him to respect it.”
Pick and Choose

Whether Bernanke is supposed to "pick and choose" is irrelevant. Bernanke and the Fed are going to attempt attempt to "pick and choose" . Meanwhile, as time goes on, the actions of the Fed are in complete alignment with the Fed Uncertainty Principle.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Thứ Ba, 5 tháng 5, 2009

Sadly, This Still Doesn't Quite Get You to McNally Territory



Sometimes you need a little extra power when there is nary a monobloc in sight. For one quick solution, follow the bouncing ball bungee as Paul Morton and Darren Stevenson show you how to mount three SB-800's into a softbox.

This is 3x better than the cheater, which will mount suspend a single SB in a speedring with the CLS window showing, a la the Strobies XS setup.

But remember, three strobes only buys you a stop and a half more power. The first additional flash doubles your power, which adds one more stop. The second one goes halfway to doubling it again, adding another half stop. But put them on 24mm zoom for good coverage and lose the internal baffle and you can definitely get up to full sun-balancing levels at close range.

Thanks much to both Paul and Darren for the how-to. (If you are reading this via email or RSS feed, click the title to pull up the full post and see the video.)

-30-

GM Shareholder Wipeout

GM is preparing to do a 100-1 reverse split after issuing up to 60 billion new shares to pay down debt.

Please consider GM details plans to wipe out current shareholders.
General Motors Corp on Tuesday detailed plans to all but wipe out the holdings of remaining shareholders by issuing up to 60 billion new shares in a bid to pay off debt to the U.S. government, bondholders and the United Auto Workers union.

The unusual plan, which was detailed in a filing with U.S. securities regulators, would only need the approval of the U.S. Treasury to proceed since the U.S. government would be the majority shareholder of a new GM, the company said.

The flood of new stock issuance that could be unleashed has been widely expected by analysts who have long warned that GM's shares could be worthless whether the company restructures out of court or in bankruptcy.

The debt-for-equity exchanges detailed in the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission would leave GM's stock investors with just 1 percent of the equity in a restructured automaker, ending a long run when the Dow component was seen as a bellwether for the strength of the broader U.S. economy.

GM shares closed on Tuesday at $1.85 on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock would be worth just over 1 cent if the first phase of GM's restructuring moves forward as described.
GM Plans 1-for-100 Reverse Stock Split

YahooFinance is reporting GM Plans 1-for-100 Reverse Stock Split

General Motors Corp. notified shareholders Tuesday it is planning a reverse stock split that would give them one share of new stock for every 100 shares they currently own.

The automaker said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that the deal would be part of an agreement with the Treasury Department in which the government would assume at least half of GM's debt in exchange for company shares. GM will send the information to shareholders currently holding a total of 610.5 million outstanding shares.

When all the deals are done GM expects to have about 62 billion shares, 100 times more than currently are outstanding.

"If the restructuring as currently contemplated occurs, there will be very substantial dilution to existing holders of GM common stock," GM's filing said. Hence, the reverse stock split proposal.

Critics, mainly bondholders, have accused the Obama administration of favoring the government and the UAW at the expense of investors.
GM shares closed on Tuesday at $1.85 on the New York Stock Exchange. The stock would be worth just over 1 cent if the first phase of GM's restructuring moves forward as described.

Inquiring minds are investigating how option traders perceive the action. Please consider GM option plays.

GM Option Plays



click on table for sharper image

If GM's demise comes on or before May 15, then holders of 60,671 PUTs will see the value soar from 3 cents to 99 cents equating to a gain of 3000+%. I am not recommending this play, but I sure as hell would not want to be the writer of those options.

More likely is a demise by June 19 which would see the bid on June puts rising from 30 cents to 99 cents or so (assuming the scenario plays out as described above).

GM Maximum Pain



Ignoring the gigantic risk reward lottery tickets of May GM options, inquiring minds are looking ahead to June. In June, we see Maximum Pain (the point at which most options expire worthless, is $3)

Without recommending (or playing) the over/under line, I would bet on the under line, presuming GM is highly unlikely to close over $3 at the June expiry. However, strike 3 PUT holders paying $1.90 for the option need to see a close below $1.10 at the June expiry (assuming options held for duration), to show a profit.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Credit Card Lending Goes Full Cycle

Here is an interesting email from "Scott" who was denied a credit card from Capital One, on the basis of "worsening economic conditions" in his area. "Scott" says he has a FICO score of 800. From Scott .....
Hey Mike,

I attempted to sign up for a new rewards style card from Capitol One. A few days prior I got my FICO score which is 800, with no balances. Capitol One denied me online, and said they'd send a mail as to why.

A few days back I got their response:

"Based on the application information for Scott E*******, there are worsening economic conditions in your area."

They also state that, "We did not request a copy of your credit file and therefore no inquiry will be placed on your credit report."

There you have it, a credit worthy borrower denied credit just because I live in Tampa.

Scott
Scan of Letter



One case does not a trend make, but redlining appears to be back in vogue. We have gone from redlining to reverse redlining (seeking out the worst possible credit risks after the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005), back to redlining in front of new card rule changes from Congress.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Thứ Hai, 4 tháng 5, 2009

Wages Contract in US, UK, Japan

Inquiring minds are investigating trends in wages, disposable income, and ability to service debt.

Japan’s Wages Fall at Fastest Pace Since 2002 on Output Slump

Japan’s wages dropped at the steepest pace in more than six years in March as manufacturers slashed overtime pay to cope with a collapse in exports. Monthly wages, including overtime and bonuses, dropped 3.7 percent from a year earlier, the most since July 2002, the Labor Ministry said today in Tokyo.

Overtime payments slid an unprecedented 20.8 percent as manufacturers cut extra working hours by a record 49.5 percent, the report showed. The government has been tracking the figures since 1990.
UK wages collapse at fastest rate in 60 years
Weekly wages fell at the fastest rate in 60 years in February as City bonuses were slashed and workers agreed to reduced hours in the wake of recession, the latest official figures show.

The Office for National Statistics said average weekly earnings fell 5.8pc compared with the same month last year, to £459.10. The private sector took the full force of the fall in weekly earnings, down sharply by 7.7pc at £463.50, while average weekly earnings in the public sector actually rose by 3.2pc to £442.90. Bonuses in the financial services fell to £549.90 a week in February - which is part of the peak period for bonus payments - from £1,312.80.

"We certainly haven't seen anything like this in the last 60 years - and probably not in peacetime since the 1930s. In that sense it's much like everything else in the economy," said Michael Saunders, chief UK economist at Citigroup.
U.S. Workers' Wages Stagnate As Firms Rush to Slash Costs
Across the country, workers' earnings are stagnating or, in some cases, declining. For many Americans, the setbacks are all the more troubling because they have lost so much wealth in recent months, with the value of their homes and retirement packages plummeting.

Employers big and small have resorted to slashing hours and once-unthinkable wage cuts. In March, staffing agencies that work for Microsoft agreed to a 10 percent reduction in their bill rate. In April, hotel operators in New York City asked unionized waiters, housekeepers and bellhops to reopen their contract and accept wage cuts. State governments such as Indiana's have frozen pay, while others, including Maryland and California, have furloughed employees.

According to a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, more than a third of Americans say they or someone in their household has had their hours or pay cut in the past few months. That's a nine-point increase since a similar poll was conducted in February.

The previous U.S. recession, in 2001, was relatively weak and didn't last the full year. But once inflation is factored in, wages actually fell, sapping workers' buying power, and didn't return to pre-recession levels until 2006, just before the economy fell into its latest funk. As a result, from 2000 to 2007, the median income of American households, when adjusted for inflation, fell by $324, according to the Commerce Department.

Wages for new hires have already fallen, according to an index compiled by the Society for Human Resource Management, a trade association based in Alexandria. Temporary workers' hourly rates are shrinking, too. Joanie Ruge, senior vice president of the staffing firm Adecco Group North America, said her company's clients have shaved as much as 10 percent off their rates.
Trends In Disposable Personal Income

Disposable income is the amount of income left to an individual after taxes have been paid, available for spending and saving. Please consider the following chart.




The chart shows DPI is still growing, in aggregate. What it does not show is how skewed the growth is. I would be interested in seeing what the chart would look like with the top 10% of wage earners taken out. I do not have that data but I suspect that if we took out the top 10% of wage earners, the chart would be negative.

Notice that DPI growth became very weak in the era of biggest debt growth, yet it was strong when debt growth was subdued. So much for the notion that inflating money supply and credit 'creates wealth'. It is not only a theoretically indefensible position, the empirical data confirm it as well.

Household Debt Service Payments Rise



It now takes close to 14% of disposable income to service household debt. In the early 1990's it took under 11%. Factor in property taxes and automobile lease payments and the numbers get worse.

Household Obligations Rise



The household debt service ratio (DSR) is an estimate of the ratio of debt payments to disposable personal income. Debt payments consist of the estimated required payments on outstanding mortgage and consumer debt.

The financial obligations ratio (FOR) adds automobile lease payments, rental payments on tenant-occupied property, homeowners' insurance, and property tax payments to the debt service ratio.

It now takes 19% of DPI to meet household financial obligations.

Total Consumer Credit




Think that consumer credit is going to be paid back? I don't, not as long as we are losing 600,000 jobs a month and wages are contracting on top of that.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Euro-Zone Jobless To Hit Postwar Record

Fessing up to reality, the European Union says euro-zone jobless to hit postwar record.
Deepening the economic gloom in Europe, the European Union admitted Monday that its previous forecasts were way off the mark. It now predicts "a deep and widespread recession" across the continent and says unemployment among nations using the euro currency will rise to a postwar record of 11.5 percent in 2010.

The new forecasts expect the economies of the 27-nation EU and the 16-nation euro-zone to shrink by 4 percent this year -- more than double a January estimate.

The EU now reckons that Germany will contract by a massive 5.4 percent this year as global demand dries up for the high-value goods such as cars and machinery that the country makes and exports. In January, the EU thought Germany would only shrink 2.3 percent this year.

The European Commission said more than 26 million people in the EU will be out of work next year as a contracting economy sheds an extra 8.5 million jobs -- putting pressure on governments and central bankers to do more to alleviate the downturn.

Just four months ago, the EU thought the EU economy would only contract 1.8 percent and the euro-zone only sink 1.9 percent this year.

Almunia [the EU's top economy official] said quarterly growth is unlikely to emerge until 2010, and that even then both the EU and the euro-zone will likely shrink 0.1 percent over the whole year -- provided the banking sector recovers and world trade turns around.
That last paragraph is interesting. The EU is now expecting a contraction for two straight years, even IF the banking sector recovers and world trade turns around. This is in sharp contrast to never ending the talk of "green shoots" in the US with many US economists predicting the recession will end in the second half of 2009.

One of those forecasts is going to be wrong.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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